Why I'm an Afro-Optimist (Because It's More Fun)
 

By BO GORANSSON

Last week [Africa Has Done in 30 Years What the West Did in 100] I said that the rear-view mirror shows us that democratisation and competence have been the two dramatic changes on the continent in the past decade or so, and asked: What does the crystal ball say for the coming 10 years?

I see three critical factors:

1. Continued democratisation is the most important factor of all. I believe that this trend is irreversible. Certainly with setbacks and failures, but in the coming decade Africa will start to reap the fruits of this process. Many would list conflicts as a major factor also in the coming decade. But with the deepening and further spread of democracy, there is a chance that the conflicts will slowly recede in number and magnitude. Democracies do not wage war between themselves. 

But democracy does not primarily deal with external relations and conflicts; the prime contract is between the people and their leaders within a country. My belief is that increased democracy will intensify the efforts to decrease the socio-economic gaps inside African countries. 

This is a major challenge, because present trends have to be reversed. In many countries, the development pattern is that those who have, get more and those who have not, get less. Inequality increases, and so does poverty. Ethnic groups are marginalised and sensitive issues such as land tenure are not addressed, women’s rights are not respected and the responsibilities of men are not discussed, let alone tackled. When positive changes occur, they are not irreversible, they require political will to be maintained.

 Many would argue that the most important dimension for poverty stricken Africa is economic growth. Indeed, but we must put the horse before the cart. Growth is not possible without investments, and money for investments will not flow or surface if there is no confidence among investors, be they local business people, poor farmers, international businesses or donors. Confidence requires stability and predictability, not least the multifaceted concept of "good governance." And that brings us back to democracy – and the need to reduce inequalities. 

2. Increased and intensified international collaboration would be the second crucial – and positive – factor. The international community has learned some lessons from Rwanda. The reaction to the crisis in Darfur is too late and too small – but there is a reaction. It comes first and foremost from within Africa. The establishment of the African Union is probably the most inspiring change in Africa for many decades. But the AU is weak, very weak, and will depend on support from the West. Nevertheless, the institution that will react and act is African-owned and African-managed. That is an enormous change. 

The new East African Community is another promising example of renewed regional collaboration. The EAC will hopefully soon be enlarged to include Burundi and Rwanda. The co-operation will forge these countries together politically, but also boost their economies. That will also have effects in preventing – or at least managing – conflicts. 

3. The HIV/Aids pandemic has the power to make all plans null and void. The effects are already here, the human suffering is immense and the economic and social repercussions are difficult to fathom. In the short run, say 10 years, we will see the crisis continue to deepen. In the longer run, countries will have to learn how to cope with it – benefiting from the increased human competence. In both the short, medium and longer term new and cheaper medicines will emerge. But the demographic effects will be there for many decades. Similarly, the social effects will be felt for a long time to come, with millions of young boys and girls growing up without adult care and attention.

Tackling HIV/Aids requires total commitment. Political leadership is a sine qua non, but all groups in society must join hands; businesses, churches, NGOs. The youth must be much more involved in awareness campaigns, to preach abstention is no panacea. We need to tackle the whole spectrum of modern life, from life skills to concepts of sexual and reproductive health – as well as questions of respect and dignity. 

But the fight against HIV/Aids also requires regional co-operation, HIV/Aids being a truly transboundary threat. Lake Victoria is the symbol of East Africa as its major and common natural resource. It is the target for increased regional co-operation in order to turn this potential liability into an asset. HIV must be subject to a similar massive, joint and coherent approach in order to turn the tide against this pandemic. 

I am an optimist. In predicting the future it is said that the optimist and the pessimist turn out to be right in an equal number of cases. But the optimist has so much more fun in the process.

Bo Goransson is the Swedish Ambassador to Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda and Somalia

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